{"id":419,"date":"2019-02-24T11:49:09","date_gmt":"2019-02-24T10:49:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/?p=419"},"modified":"2019-02-26T08:44:04","modified_gmt":"2019-02-26T07:44:04","slug":"prop-19-02-24","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/2019\/02\/24\/prop-19-02-24\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fddenn\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f podm\u00ednek \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch vln 24.2.2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed text je voln\u00fdm p\u0159episem informace, vys\u00edlan\u00e9 v ned\u011bli r\u00e1no mezi 07:15 \u2013 07:30 m\u00edstn\u00edho \u010dasu na kmito\u010dtu 3773 kHz.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ps\u00e1no 24. \u00fanora 2019:<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edpov\u011bdi minima jeden\u00e1ctilet\u00e9ho cyklu<\/strong> (tj. konce 24. a po\u010d\u00e1tku 25. cyklu) podle jednotliv\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch center:<\/span><\/p>\n

SIDC – kombinovan\u00e1 metoda: z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a\u017e \u0159\u00edjen 2018 (!)<\/span>
\nSIDC – klasick\u00e1 metoda: z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a\u017e \u0159\u00edjen 2019<\/span>
\nAustralsk\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad (R): srpen 2019<\/span>
\nAustralsk\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad (T): leden a\u017e b\u0159ezen 2020<\/span>
\nU.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA – SWPC: 2022 – 2023<\/span><\/p>\n

Jistotu co se t\u00fd\u010de po\u010d\u00e1tku 25. cyklu budeme m\u00edt teprve a\u017e za\u010dne slune\u010dn\u00ed aktivita d\u00e9le a strm\u011bji r\u016fst – alespo\u0148 v \u0159\u00e1du m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. P\u0159edt\u00edm se za\u010dnou na Slunci hojn\u011bji objevovat aktivn\u00ed oblasti s opa\u010dnou magnetickou polaritou.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ehled hlavn\u00edch index\u016f aktivity za posledn\u00ed t\u00fdden,<\/span><\/strong>\ntj. za 17. - 24. 2. 2019:<\/span><\/strong>\n\nDen:<\/span>\n17 18 19 20 21 22 23<\/span>\nSlune\u010dn\u00ed tok - DRAO Penticton, BC, Kanada, VE7:<\/span>\n70 70 70 71 71 71 71<\/span>\nIndex geomanetick\u00e9 aktivity A - Boulder, CO, USA, W0:<\/span>\n 4  6  3  3 11  4  2<\/span>\nIndex geomanetick\u00e9 aktivity A - Wingst, Doln\u00ed Sasko, N\u011bmecko, DL:<\/span>\n 5  7  3  2 13  4  2<\/span><\/pre>\n
Dosavadn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
Slune\u010dn\u00ed aktivita z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 n\u00edzk\u00e1 a Slunce je ji\u017e od 31. ledna beze skvrn. Geomagnetick\u00e1 aktivita je v\u011bt\u0161inou n\u00edzk\u00e1. Podm\u00ednky \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed se d\u00edky bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edmu se jaru velmi pozvolna zlep\u0161uj\u00ed s mal\u00fdmi v\u00fdkyvy na ob\u011b strany, maj\u00edc\u00edmi sp\u00ed\u0161e charakter n\u00e1hodn\u00fdch fluktuac\u00ed. Do t\u00e9to kategorie m\u016f\u017eeme za\u0159adit i kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 zlep\u0161en\u00ed 21. \u00fanora odpoledne a ve\u010der.<\/span><\/p>\n
P\u0159edpov\u011bdi:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n
Slune\u010dn\u00ed od Martiny Exnerov\u00e9:<\/span>
\n\u00darove\u0148 aktivity: v\u011bt\u0161inou velmi n\u00edzk\u00e1<\/span>
\nRentgenov\u00fd tok pozad\u00ed (1,0-8,0 A): v rozsahu A0.0-A1.3<\/span>
\nR\u00e1diov\u00fd tok (10,7 cm): fluktuace v rozsahu 69-73f.u.<\/span>
\nErupce: t\u0159\u00edda C (0 za obdob\u00ed), t\u0159\u00edda M (0 za obdob\u00ed), t\u0159\u00edda X (0 za obdob\u00ed), protonov\u00e9 (0 za obdob\u00ed)<\/span>
\nRelativn\u00ed po\u010det slune\u010dn\u00edch skvrn (Ri): v rozsahu 0-25<\/span><\/p>\n
Geomagnetick\u00e9 pole bude:<\/span>
\nklidn\u00e9 24. \u2013 26. \u00fanora a 10., 15. – 16. b\u0159ezna<\/span>
\nklidn\u00e9 a\u017e neust\u00e1len\u00e9 4., \u2013 7., 9, 11. a 18. b\u0159ezna,<\/span>
\nklidn\u00e9 a\u017e aktivn\u00ed 3., 8., 12. – 14., 17. a 19. – 20. b\u0159ezna<\/span>
\nneust\u00e1len\u00e9 a\u017e aktivn\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e 27. \u00fanora a je\u0161t\u011b 2. b\u0159ezna<\/span>
\naktivn\u00ed a\u017e naru\u0161en\u00e9 28. \u00fanora a 1. b\u0159ezna<\/span><\/p>\n
Slune\u010dn\u00ed v\u00edtr zintenzivn\u00ed v \u00fanoru 28. a v b\u0159eznu 1. \u2013 3., 6. \u2013 9., 13. – 15. a 20.<\/span><\/p>\n
V\u00fdvoj podm\u00ednek \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed KV:<\/strong> v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dnech a t\u00fddnech m\u016f\u017eeme nad\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edtat s postupn\u00fdm pomal\u00fdm, m\u00edrn\u00fdm zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00edm, v souvislosti s bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edm se jarem. Tento v\u00fdvoj bude p\u0159eru\u0161ov\u00e1n poruchami (zejm\u00e9na 28. \u00fanora a 1. b\u0159ezna a mo\u017en\u00e1 ji\u017e 27. b\u0159ezna). Velmi z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na tom, ve kter\u00e9 denn\u00ed dob\u011b porucha nastartuje. Stane-li se tak v denn\u00ed dob\u011b (ide\u00e1ln\u011b odpoledne), m\u016f\u017ee v\u00fdvoj poruchy za\u010d\u00edt tzv. kladnou f\u00e1z\u00ed, b\u011bhem n\u00ed\u017e rostou nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pou\u017eiteln\u00e9 kmito\u010dty a klesne \u00fatlum. A naopak, zejm\u00e9na za\u010dne-li porucha v jin\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti dne, zejm\u00e9na ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b noci, m\u016f\u017ee rovnou za\u010d\u00edt tzv. z\u00e1pornou f\u00e1z\u00ed s poklesem nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch pou\u017eiteln\u00fdch kmito\u010dt\u016f a vzr\u016fstem \u00fatlumu. U del\u0161\u00edch poruch obvykle pokra\u010duje z\u00e1porn\u00e1 f\u00e1ze. Tu o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bji 1. – 2. b\u0159ezna. P\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 v\u00fdjimky potvrd\u00ed pravidlo (ale obvykle nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u010dasto, v pln\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e jednou a\u017e dvakr\u00e1t za rok).<\/span><\/p>\n
Slune\u010dn\u00ed v\u00edtr m\u016f\u017ee v z\u00e1vislosti na stavu ionosf\u00e9ry jak p\u0159isp\u011bt \u010d\u00e1sticovou ionizac\u00ed (a zv\u00fd\u0161it MUF), tak i p\u0159isp\u011bt k v\u00fdskytu nehomogenit (a zv\u00fd\u0161it \u00fatlum).<\/span><\/p>\n
Za jakoukoli zp\u011btnou vazbu – dotazy, p\u0159ipom\u00ednky, koment\u00e1\u0159e, informace o v\u00fdvoji podm\u00ednek \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed, jak p\u0159i spojen\u00ed tak i mailem – anebo via Packet Radio (st\u00e1le funguje!) – d\u011bkuji p\u0159edem.<\/span><\/p>\n
73 ES HPE CU<\/span>
\nFranta, OK1HH<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
N\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed text je voln\u00fdm p\u0159episem informace, vys\u00edlan\u00e9 v ned\u011bli r\u00e1no mezi 07:15 \u2013 07:30 m\u00edstn\u00edho \u010dasu na kmito\u010dtu 3773 kHz. Ps\u00e1no 24. \u00fanora 2019: P\u0159edpov\u011bdi minima jeden\u00e1ctilet\u00e9ho cyklu (tj. konce 24. a po\u010d\u00e1tku 25. cyklu) podle jednotliv\u00fdch p\u0159edpov\u011bdn\u00edch center: SIDC – kombinovan\u00e1 metoda: z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed a\u017e \u0159\u00edjen 2018 (!) SIDC –\u010ct\u011bte d\u00e1le…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["entry","author-ok1hh","post-419","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-novinky","category-predpovedi-sireni-kv"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=419"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":437,"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/419\/revisions\/437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=419"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=419"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ok5cav.cz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=419"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}